First Qld cyclone ‘possible’ next week
WHILE half of Queensland is on fire and flooding rain drenches parts of New South Wales, another threat is looming off the coast: the first potential cyclone of the season.
According to Higgins Storm Chasing, a tropical low or cyclone is forecast to develop by various global models next week in the Coral Sea.
"If it does it will become the first cyclone to develop in Australia for the 2018-19 season," they said.
But they maintained there was "a lot of uncertainty" with forecast data, saying it was only a potential scenario at this stage.
"About five global models including BOM's own Access G have a tropical low or cyclone developing as early as Sunday in the North East Coral Sea," Higgins states.
"Many of them have the system intensifying and heading west to south west towards QLD. After that it becomes completely uncertain as to further developments and track.
"This is a heads up post informing people of the potential and that we are keeping a very close eye on ALL global data."
Last month, the Bureau of Meteorology predicted up to four cyclones to form this season.
However, Nitso from Oz Cyclone Chasers said "there is no cyclone yet".
"What there is out here is this trough system that's developing … out of that trough system it's tracking west, south west across the Solomon Sea and the far northern parts of the Coral Sea," he explained via a public weather update posted to Facebook.
"This is all going to be happening slowly … the expectation is that system will track in a west-southwest direction up into the far northern Coral Sea.
"What it does in the far northern Coral Sea is a little bit of a mystery."
Nitso then looks at the different range of scenarios
But he did say that they were "far more excited" about this system than the one first reported possibly developing a few weeks ago.
"This one's got at least a little bit of merit," he said.
The Bureau of Meteorology's three-day cyclone outlook for the Coral Sea and Northern Region is "very low" from today until Saturday.