More rain coming, then brace for a big cyclone, storm season
SHOWERS delivering up to 20mm of rain are expected to develop over Gympie region mid-week next week, and on a broader scale, we could be in for an increased chance of cyclones, heavy rain and storms during the 2020/21 wet season, the Bureau of Meoteorology says.
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While the Bureau does not release its official Cyclone Outlook until October, a spokesman concurred on Friday that it did seem that a La Nina-like weather pattern was developing in the Pacific Ocean for the rest of the year.
La Nina events are generally associated with increased rainfall and above average chance of cyclones across Australia.
Higgins Storm Chasers posted on Friday that most of Northern and Eastern Australia was in line to receive much better rainfall than the last few years over the 2020/21 wet season.
“Now that we are through the winter barrier, long range global data is much more reliable,” the post said.
“This latest global data has just been updated during the past 24 hours and it’s indicating strong potential for a weak La Nina weather pattern to develop. Even if the ENSO falls just short of the offical -0.8C La Nina threshold, cooler than neutral sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected. This will become the primary climate driver from September onwards where it should significantly increase the moisture feed across northern and eastern Australia.
Higgins said high pressure systems are forecast to be further east near New Zealand, feeding moisture into inland surface troughs across Queensland and NSW.
“These troughs will generate showers, rain areas and thunderstorms with many storms being severe, containing heavy rainfall, flash flooding, large hail and damaging winds. Their troughs are likely to be quasi stationary moving east to the coast on occasions then redeveloping inland shortly after.”