How LNP can win QLD election
DEB Frecklington's tilt at being Queensland's next premier looks like a tough ask.
The LNP enters the election holding 38 seats after Frecklington ousted the party's most marginal member, Whitsunday MP Jason Costigan, during the term.
That means the LNP would have to pick up an extra nine seats to reach 47, the number needed to form majority government.
It would require a uniform swing across Queensland away from Labor of just over 3 per cent for that to occur.
The LNP would need to reclaim the five electorates it lost to Labor in 2017 - Aspley, Gaven, Redlands, Mansfield and Mount Ommaney.
Then Frecklington would need to win back Whitsunday and claim three others.
The five seats in Townsville and Cairns are the prime targets that all the pundits are talking about, however outside the three years of the Newman government some of these have not been won by the LNP or any of its predecessor parties for decades.
The must-win electorate among these is Mundingburra, which has been a bellwether seat held by Queensland's incumbent government ever since it was recreated in 1992.
Sitting member Coralee O'Rourke is retiring after battling breast cancer. That hasn't helped Labor's prospects.
However, in neighbouring Thuringowa, the LNP polled a lowly 21 per cent in 2017 - and before 2012 the electorate had never been won by the party since it was created in 1986.
That means the LNP might have to look elsewhere for fertile electoral areas. And they're few and far between. Regional Queensland has Maryborough, Mirani, Keppel, Cook (where the LNP polled below One Nation in 2017) and Hinchinbrook - which it lost in 2017 to Katter's Australian Party.
In the southeast corner - outside the five seats previously mentioned - there really is only the Greens-held Maiwar. Springwood, Ferny Grove and Redcliffe are unlikely prospects.
However, a gain of just four seats would take the LNP to 42 and put Frecklington in a position to negotiate a minority government with crossbench MPs other than Greens. Add six seats and there's the prospect of sharing power with just KAP.
But given the LNP faces a fight reclaiming all of its current seats - particularly Pumicestone - Frecklington looks to have the odds stacked against her this election.
Originally published as How LNP can win QLD election