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Subtle clue about Brownlow winner

The Brownlow Medal is all about trying to find an edge.

And after crunching the numbers on 11 years' worth of data, La Trobe University senior lecturer Dr Liam Lenton has found one.

When waiting for the votes to drop on Monday night, keep an ear out for how many times Gillon McLachlan reads a captain's name.

Lenton's research shows appointed skippers (whether solo or a co-captain) poll between 1.3% and 2.1% more votes than all other players.  

For vice captains, their voting impact is smaller but still noticeable, jumping from 0.6% to 1.5%."Umpires deal with captains more throughout the course of the game.

They toss the coin with them so they spend a little bit of time with them before the game," Lenton told the Herald Sun.  

"They're more likely to have dialogue with them during the matches than any other player because of the leadership role."

Lenton's research focuses on econometric modelling and regression techniques and draws on a comprehensive database of approximately 100,000 players across 2,254 home-and-away matches between 2006-2017.

So who does this information favour the most come Brownlow night?

Nat Fyfe is the captain closest to the top of the betting and is rated a $7 chance with TAB.One line further back is Carlton skipper Patrick Cripps, who hit the 2019 season as one of the youngest skippers in the AFL.When it comes to captains in the "most team votes" markets, Rory Sloane is a whopping $10 behind Matt and Brad Crouch.

However, both the SuperFooty Brownlow Predictor and Champion Data expect him to poll well.Scott Pendlebury hasn't polled less than 15 votes in a season since 2009.

He is the third top rated Pie at $5.50.Lenton is also more qualified than most to comment on how umpires interact with leaders.He has umpired 200 senior level matches at local level.

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HERALD SUN REPORTERS PICK THEIR BEST BETS

GLENN McFARLANE Brodie Grundy to finish top 5 - $3

JAY CLARK Patrick Dangerfield and Nat Fyfe quinella - $5.50

MARK ROBINSON Patrick Dangerfield and Nat Fyfe quinella - $5.50

SAM EDMUND Patrick Dangerfield most votes 19-23 - $4.50

TIM MICHELL Patrick Dangerfield Nat Fyfe and Patrick Cripps trifecta $47

JON ANDERSON Andrew Gaff most votes West Coast - $3.25

SCOTT GULLAN Jackson Macrae top-three - $7.25

NICK QUINN (TAB) Dustin Martin most votes Rds 15 -23 - $3

REBECCA WILLIAMS Patrick Dangerfield Nat Fyfe Marcus Bontempelli trifecta $15

GILBERT GARDINER Patrick Dangerfield Tim Kelly quinella $30JON RALPH Brodie Grundy winner - $15

CHRIS VERNUCCIO Lachie Neale top-three $2.10NICK SMART Dion Prestia to finish top-10 - $3.50

DAN BATTEN Rory Sloane most votes Adelaide $11

LAUREN WOOD Paddy Dangerfield most votes Rds 15-23 $3.50

MICHAEL WARNER Patrick Dangerfield to finish top-10$1.02(TAB)



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