Topics:  candidates, chamber of commerce, forum, lnp, queensland election 2012

Candidates take a punt

Candidates Shane Paulger, Kathy Hawke, Shena MacDonald and David Gibson put their views forward in the face of the seemingly inevitable, as chairman Kerren Smith keeps things moving
Candidates Shane Paulger, Kathy Hawke, Shena MacDonald and David Gibson put their views forward in the face of the seemingly inevitable, as chairman Kerren Smith keeps things moving Arthur Gorrie

THE near certainty of massive LNP wins in Gympie, near Gympie and across the state took much of the sting out of Wednesday night's Chamber of Commerce candidates' forum.

No smell of fear, no electricity in the air, no frisson, not even much in the way of interested expectation marred the serenity of the moment as two thirds of the candidates turned up to put their case to about one-third of the expected audience in the seemingly vast and empty Orchid Room at Gympie RSL Club.

Australian Party candidate Shane Paulger named the game early when he said he was speaking in the context of an expected huge win for the LNP, almost everywhere.

The most reliable election predictor in history, the sentiment of the betting public, was strongly in agreement with him.

As online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au told the world this week, the LNP is more of a favourite to win than world champion Australian racehorse Black Caviar.

Sportsbet spokesman Shaun Anderson made the telling comparison with the famous race horse, saying punters could get better odds with similar certainty if they had a flutter on Black Caviar, widely regarded as the best sprinting thoroughbred on the planet and one of the best Australian horses ever.

This betting confidence is significant because the punters of the world (who put their money literally where their mouths are), tend to produce more accurate election result predictions than any other expert analysis, including all the opinion polls.

The only question seems to be picking the size of the LNP majority, with odds of $3.20 on a 64 to 67 seat majority.



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